By far the best Machine Learning Model for predicting the NBA Champion & MVP
Introduction
The regular 2022–23 NBA season is coming to an end, the basketball fans create their Playoff brackets and place their first bets on their favorite team. It is not uncommon to see emotional discussions between different fan camps, as everyone has their own fan glasses on and pleads for their objectively correct opinion. As a data enthusiast I have learned that such emotions often distort one’s own perception. This usually leads to a misjudgement.
For this reason I want to present you today my predictions about the NBA Champion & MVP of the season 2022–23. These predictions are based on machine learning techniques that have predicted the previous winners of these titles in an unemotional, accurate and successful way.
With this knowledge you will hopefully be able to win the next fan debate, complete your Playoff bracket more successfully or be right in your next bet.
To fully understand the results, I recommend you read the detailed summary of machine learning predictions in these two Medium articles.
Attention
All Predictions are up to date! 🏀🏆
NBA Champion
We all wish for NBA Playoffs where all teams stay injury free and meet each other at full strength to see the most exciting 7 game series possible. Of course, we all know that won’t happen. At least one favorite will lose their best player to injury. Unfortunately, it is hard to predict which player will drop out. For this reason, the algorithm is based on the assumption that each team will play the Playoff with full player power.
The result for the algorithm is clear. The Milwaukee Bucks or the Bosten Celtics will be champions and will most likely play the Denver Nuggets in the finals. Furthermore, it is noticeable that the algorithm favors the East teams to win the title.
Surprisingly, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors are among the Top 7 teams, even though they did not finish in the Top 3 of their conference. For many basketball experts this is not surprising.
The Cavs have the best defense of the regular season and are considered by many to be the dark horse of this year’s playoffs. The Dubs, on the other hand, had a mixed season. Nevertheless, they were able to convince after the All-Star-Weekend, especially offensively. In addition, they have the Championship-DNA like no other team in the current NBA.
For me, however, this result is surprising, since the algorithm clearly favors teams that finish in the Top 3 of their conference and automatically assigns them a higher probability of winning the title.
Therefore, one should be aware that if these two teams run hot in the first games, they can do much better in the title race than predicted.
NBA MVP
Usually by the end of the season it is clear who the regular season MVP will be. But not this year. This year will see the greatest, deepest and weirdest MVP race of all time. Since 2021 the three big man, Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo have been fighting for the award every year. So far, Jokić has won the award every year. The reason for this was and is clear. He had the best season stats at the end of every season. And this year is no different.
He has improved once again and statistically leads the MVP race. At least that’s what the algorithm claims, which makes predictions based exclusively on data and numbers.
But the reality is different. This year’s MVP race seems to be more emotionally driven. And now some NBA experts and fans are asking themselves the questions.
- Is the Joker even allowed to win three titles in a row?
- Or, do narratives in the NBA mean as much as actual merit?
If you want to learn more about these numbers and narratives, I recommend the best YouTube channel dedicated to the NBA JxmyHighroller.
Conclusion
NBA Champion
In a nutshell, the question of this year’s NBA Champion can be answered in one sentence. The team that wins the Eastern conference finals also wins the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.
NBA MVP
This year’s MVP Race winner will receive ‘The Michael Jordan Trophy’ for the first time. Personally, I hope that this award will not be disturbed by narrative and that the player with the best regular season performance (Nikola Jokić) will win.
Shout-Out
If you are interested in NBA analysis or much more analysis on sports in general, I recommend JakeAllen’s Medium account. I have discussed many exciting topics with him over the last 6 months. And I can tell you that this man is incredibly smart and he produces quality content.
Feedback & Questions
If you have any feedback, please check out my email address on my Website or connect with LinkedIn. If you want to study the code and all results in detail, check out the GitHub Repository.
